First, the facts. On 11 July, Putin stopped the gas flow to Europe through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, claiming routine maintenance.
That started a panic in the EU, especially in countries like Germany that are almost totally dependent on Russian gas. What if Putin stops it for ever? The thought was too frightening to contemplate, especially since “Putin’s best woman” Merkel had done all she could to destroy all realistic alternatives to Putin’s hydrocarbons.
Routine maintenance on that pipeline normally takes 2-3 days. This time it took 10, and only yesterday did Putin magnanimously agree to continue taking his billion euros a day, a payment for gas that makes his bandit raid on the Ukraine self-financing.
Meanwhile, though Russian troops are taking a breather (an operational pause, in technical parlance), Putin has stepped up genocidal raids on cities. The other day Russian missiles struck the centre of Vinnytsia, killing over 20 people, including children.
Vinnytsia is a city in west-central Ukraine, far from the frontline. It’s a hub for the flow of humanitarian aid, something that interferes with Putin’s genocidal designs.
At the same time, Foreign Minister Lavrov announced that, now that Nato was supplying long-range weapons to the Ukraine, Russia was no longer going to be satisfied with just Donbas. She was now going to claim other chunks of Ukrainian territory as well. That statement of intent sounded sinister even though it lacked novelty appeal, what with the Russians having tried to take Kiev in the first days of the war.
Summing up, Russia again uses her gas as a blackmail weapon. In parallel, Putin continues the indiscriminate murder of civilians as a terrorist tactic designed to break the spirit of the Ukraine and her friends.
All that unfolds against the backdrop of greedier territorial claims that remain open-ended. The implication is that Putin’s thirst may have to be slaked not only by the Dnieper, but also possibly the Vistula or even the Rhine.
Before I tell you what the West’s response was, I’d like to suggest what it should have been. First, most Western governments have a policy of never negotiating with blackmailers and terrorists. That principle should have pertained in this case.
Hence, when Nord Stream stopped pumping, EU leaders should have told Putin in no uncertain terms exactly where he could stick that pipeline and whatever flows through it. Don’t bother reopening it, Vlad, the message should have been.
A new package of stiff sanctions should have been brought on stream, showing Putin that the West was ready to stand fast, whatever it takes. Yes, some economic hardship would have ensued, but this has traditionally been accepted as a fair price to pay for freedom.
In reality, having doubtless considered such options, the West has gone for their exact opposite, demonstrating yet again its craven spinelessness.
Rather than telling the Russians to eat their gas and drink their oil, the EU heaved a collective sigh of relief and thanked Putin, so far only inwardly, for renewing his tender hydrocarbon mercies. In addition, Putin’s Hungarian stooge Orbán continued to undermine Western unity by striking his own private deal for discounted Russian gas.
While Nord Stream was down, Canada returned to Russia the sanctioned Siemens turbine. The EU also broke its own sanctions by restoring Russia’s ability to transport sanctioned goods from the mainland to the Kaliningrad enclave.
At the same time, the US has removed the ban on Russian trade in fertilisers, food and medicine. Not to be outdone, the EU has introduced the seventh package of sanctions, whose principal function seems to be mitigating the effect of the previous six.
The Council of Europe issued a statement, saying that: “We are also extending the exemption of transactions for agricultural products and transfer of oil to third countries. Because the EU is doing its part to ensure we can overcome the looming global food crisis.”
Like prison sentences, sanctions are designed to punish past crimes and deter future ones. Yet, rather than deterring Putin, this geopolitical travesty is likely to encourage him.
If the West refuses to accept any economic discomfort for the sake of stopping Putin’s aggression with a united front, his criminal instincts will slip into a higher gear. He may well decide that the West is so weak that it’ll put up only token resistance should Vlad’s bands sweep into, say, Lithuania – or start exterminating Ukrainians with nuclear weapons.
The awful machine that passes for Putin’s brain has no reverse gear. Having spent his youth running with street gangs, he still thinks in the same terms: if you retreat, you lose face. And if you lose face, you lose your life.
The gravest error Western politicians can make is believing that Putin’s thought follows a normal rational path. His logic isn’t that of a human being, but that of a jungle beast. That’s why residually civilised Western leaders can’t make heads or tails of it.
Just look at Russia’s relations with Israel, the only Western country that maintains friendly, or at least not overtly hostile, relations with Putin. Since Israel has so far refused to join many Western sanctions, it remains the only narrow conduit through which sensitive Western technology can trickle into Russia.
In spite of that, Russia has announced that the offices of Sohnut, the Israeli organisation set up 100 years ago to facilitate Jewish migration to the Promised Land, will be shut. This though Sohnut has operated in Russia since 1989, helping thousands to emigrate without having to jump through too many bureaucratic hoops.
That announcement coincided with Putin’s return from Iran, where he tried to enlist that country as a member of his anti-Western coalition. Obviously, the ayatollahs’ participation is contingent on Russia’s support of their militants fanning the fire of terror in Syria. Since Israel is methodically wiping those thugs out, Putin had to show willing.
If the Russians still had some mental faculties uninfected by Putin’s stupefying propaganda, they’d be asking how an alliance with a fundamentalist Islamic regime tallies with Putin’s professed commitment to Christian values.
Alas, people capable of asking such questions are few in Russia, and are getting fewer. Rather than merely dominating the media, such propaganda now owns them outright. And thinking people are fleeing Russia in droves, many never to return.
Good riddance, as far as Putin is concerned. An aggressive, fascist Russia has no need for thinkers. All she needs is murderous, thieving sadists created in their leader’s image — along with a supine West unwilling to stop Putin’s juggernaut in its tracks, and unable even to understand its evil driving force.
We are practically begging him to carry on.
Solid analysis. Thanks. Perhaps Putin has a better understanding of his “Western partner” than many give him credit for. Modern Western man appears more interested in preserving his individual rights and high standard of living than with sacrificing for a common cause.