My lower-case conservative friends are enthusiastic about UKIP finishing ahead of both Tories and Labour in the Eastleigh by-election. By contrast, I’m upset about UKIP finishing behind the LibDems.
Is Nigel Farage’s pint glass half-full or half-empty? This depends on whether one looks upon it from an aesthetic or pragmatic vantage point.
Aesthetically it’s most satisfying that UKIP has shown its potential to consign the morally and intellectually bankrupt Tory party to roughly the role traditionally played by the LibDems. It’s now a fair assumption that when UKIP contests a seat, the Tories will be unlikely to win it. It’s as fair an assumption that neither will UKIP.
That’s where pragmatism comes in. This was once explained to me in simple words by a formidable Tory front-bencher. ‘A vote for UKIP,’ she roared in response to my cri de coeur, ‘is a vote for Labour.’ Or for LibDems, as the case was yesterday. Either way, she had a point.
Do we seriously think that the Milibandits, in or out of coalition with the Cleggies, will be better than the Cameroons? Of course we don’t. At their best, they’ll be just as bad. At their normal, they’ll be even worse. At their worst, they’ll make the Brits seek refuge in Romania, not the other way round.
True conservatives are counting on UKIP to knock the Tories out of their shilly-shallying stride, making them act like, well, Tories, rather than Blair clones. UKIP then is supposed to do for the Tories what a spoiler does for a car. It keeps it on the straight and narrow.
The recent travesty with referendum promises shows how forlorn this hope is. His mind honed by PR trickery, Dave made a sop to anti-federalism by half-promising a referendum (a half-promise on anything is the best Dave can make – just look at his track record, or indeed his face). This, however, has not so much strings as a noose attached.
For, in common with most modern politicians, Dave is incapable of looking beyond the next election. Hence the referendum carrot can’t be eaten unless he remains at Downing Street after 2015 – and Eastleigh shows how improbable this is. Moreover, no promise has been made on the wording of the big question, and any market researcher will tell you that this is often decisive.
If you ask the people ‘Do you wish to stay in the EU so we can continue to trade with Europe?’, you’ll get one answer. If you ask ‘Do you wish to leave the EU so Britain can become independent again?’ the answer will be different.
In other words, Dave made no binding or substantive promise. He merely tried to neutralise what’s commonly perceived as UKIP’s single issue. The trick didn’t work in Eastleigh. Whether it’ll work nationally remains to be seen. In the unlikely event that it does, the Tories may yet win the next election. In the almost certain event that it doesn’t, Labour will win. In either event, we’ll lose.
It’s naïve to expect that a tectonic shift can occur in any major modern party. Those embarking on spoiling raids may toss bricks through windows all they want – the spivocrats will paper the windows over and remain almost as cosy as before. And historically, our first-past-the-post culture consigns any third party to such petty thuggery at best.
All this achieves these days is making the spivocrats conjure up new and more devious cardsharping tricks. Sure enough, voters can satisfy their platonic cravings by casting a protest vote in a by-election or even nationally, but this would mean something only if there were a real difference between the two main parties. But there isn’t, so it doesn’t.
Much as we may love UKIP, and Nigel Farage personally, it’s hard to say that the party is being triumphant in its spoiler role. The Tories are just as spivocratic as before, and UKIP still doesn’t have a single MP. Moreover, the party now has half as many members as it did in 2004. It does well in European elections, but that only goes to show how trivial most Brits consider these to be.
If UKIP is to succeed, it must stop snapping at the Tories’ ankles. It must kick them into touch. And the only way to achieve this is by reinventing itself as the true conservative party, one that can engage and win a debate on the economy and health, education and defence – on every issue of vital interest to the country.
The only meaningful way of winning such debates isn’t to field better debaters – it’s to offer better solutions. For such solutions to be taken seriously, the party must position itself as a serious force. UKIP must show itself to be ready not to trip up Tory nincompoops but to form a government.
As it is, UKIP is sending mixed signals, which is why it’s delivering mixed results. On the one hand, the party broadens its appeal by placing itself on the side of the conservative angels on such issues as grammar schools, immigration, same-sex marriage. On the other hand its top functionaries suggest, as one did to me a few months ago, that UKIP would disband the moment we leave the EU.
Such a silly remark in a private conversation wouldn’t matter, but unfortunately this is the general impression the party conveys to the electorate. Unless this changes, a vote for UKIP will indeed mean a vote for Labour.
What can be done? Not being an expert in political free-for-all, I can only suggest a broad strategy, not concrete tactical steps.
First, UKIP must come up with an all-embracing political philosophy, positioning itself as the true conservative party, the only one capable of upholding the country’s ancient constitution, making it prosperous, just and free. This is harder than it sounds, for no more or less universal understanding of conservatism is discernible at present.
Then UKIP must translate this philosophy into the kind of sound bytes that can penetrate the consciousness of a public that has been systematically and, one suspects, deliberately corrupted and dumbed down.
Unlike the first two tasks, the next two would cost. UKIP must employ the best talent to carry the sound bytes to the populace – widely, incessantly and effectively. This would be impossible without finding big backers, but a cursory inspection suggests they’re there to be found.
Finally, the party must contest every election, communicating to voters its seriousness of purpose. The electorate must be made to realise that UKIP’s intention is to form the government, not to keep it marginally more honest.
True, this is all easier said than done, especially the last two parts. But unless it’s done, UKIP will be limited to providing good, clean fun. Tory candidates will weep into their pillows. Labour will snigger. And the country, now properly entertained, will laugh all the way to disaster.