The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas is hailed as a triumph of diplomacy. The US brokered the deal, with both Biden and Trump claiming the credit.
I, on the other hand, wonder which of them should take the blame. For the agreement is another instalment in the saga of America bullying Israel into supine concessions just when the problem could be solved once and for all.
During the year of hostilities, the IDF greatly degraded both Hamas and Hezbollah, but not beyond repair. The job needed one last touch, but the ceasefire let the two terrorist gangs live to fight another day. Yet again Israel was prevented from finishing her enemies off.
Instead, the country had her arm twisted into negotiating with terrorists, something that goes against Israel’s military doctrine, instincts and indeed common sense. This at a time when the IDF was ready to deliver a coup de grâce.
Hamas was on its last legs. Thousands of its militants and dozens of its chieftains had been killed, and much of its infrastructure had been destroyed. Many of its warehouses and tunnels had been blown up.
Just as impressive was Israel’s political success, although looking at the pro-Hamas riots in European cities one might not get that impression. In fact, even most Arab countries voiced a mild support of Israel.
Much of that benevolence was due not to their sudden burst of affection for the Jewish state, but by their correct view of the terrorists as Iran’s stormtroopers. Yet it took much diplomatic and political action to make the link between Iran and Hamas/Hezbollah plain for the world to see.
In short, the terrorists had been routed on every kind of battlefield, and it took American bullying for Israel to offer them a reprieve. Alas, degraded doesn’t mean destroyed. Israel had planted the seeds of victory and hence lasting peace, but she was again prevented from reaping the harvest.
Hamas was allowed to keep its control of Gaza and hence its base of future terrorist operations against Israel. The strategic aim of murdering every Jew “between the river and the sea” hasn’t gone away, and it’s only a matter of time before Hamas will be able to come back in strength. How much time is a matter of conjecture, but it’s when, not if.
Exactly the same thing happened in 1956 during the Suez Canal crisis, in 1968 during the Six-Day War, in 1973 during the Yom Kippur War, in 1978 during Israel’s attack on terrorists in Lebanon, and I’m sure I’ve left a few incidents out.
Such treatment of America’s sole reliable ally in the Middle East isn’t party-specific. All US administrations involved, Republican and Democratic alike, have treated Israel as a bull in the ring: allowed to fight, but not allowed to win, not decisively at any rate.
Each time the US supported Israel, but only up to a point. And that support was then used as leverage to stop Israel in her tracks just when decisive victory was in sight.
Moreover, each time the Israelis had to pretend they were ecstatic about the happy ending to hostilities. Yet in this case, as in all the previous ones, there is little to be ecstatic about.
Yes, Israel will get a few dozen hostages back, if there are still so many still left in one piece. Few if any of the hostages are soldiers, most of them are women, children and old people who were going about their peaceful business when Hamas struck on 7 November, 2023.
In exchange, the Israelis will release 1,650 Hamas POWs, which is to say the savage militants who raped and murdered, not always in that order. They’ll return to Gaza and resume their evil activities – meaning that many Israeli lives will continue to be lost to bandit raids and a hail of missiles.
The released militants won’t be the only ones. Thousands more, every one of them with murder in his heart, will continue to be armed, financed and trained. Any doctrinal haters of Israel in the Islamic world, along with enemies of the West who have a vested interest in turmoil, such as Russia and China, will be happy to oblige.
The net effect on Israeli lives will be devastating, compared to leaving the hostages to their fate and finishing Hamas off for good.
This arithmetic is heartless but unavoidable, and all Israelis are prepared to have to make such calculations. There is a permanent war going on, and, while weeping over every killed Israeli, survivors have to regard them as battlefield casualties and make sure the enemy will pay for their death a hundred times over. The Old Testament trumps the New Age.
The Biden administration and those who voted for it have plenty of malcontents who hate the West and hence Israel, while adoring any Third World barbarians they see as victims of colonialism and Zionism. But Trump’s participation in the deal is worrying because it doesn’t bode well for either Israel or the Ukraine.
The new president is a friend of Israel, although his feelings for the Ukraine are less obvious. But he sees the world in largely transactional terms, with striking a deal elevated to an almost religious height. Trump is sure that his own charisma and American power are so irresistible that he could put an end to any conflict, no matter how sanguinary and protracted.
In theory, there is nothing sinister about that: horse trading is the essence of diplomacy, the only way to chart a safe course through a minefield of conflicting interests. But a deal has no self-redeeming value: there exist good ones and bad ones.
A good deal improves the well-being of both sides, a bad one serves one but not the other. Another word for it is surrender – either instant or extended over time.
Some of Trump’s pronouncements give rise to fears that he sees deals to be done both in Israel and the Ukraine in strictly self-serving terms, as steps towards a Nobel Peace Prize and the beatitude of a peacemaker. Or else as a demonstration of American power, and his own.
In both cases, the US has much more leverage on the good side of any negotiations, with both Israel and especially the Ukraine heavily dependent on American supplies. But using that leverage to force through a deal detrimental to America’s allies brings to mind the Russian proverb: beat your friends so your enemies will fear you.
As I write this, Trump is about to be sworn in as America’s 47th president. We’re in for an interesting time, and cautious optimism must be in order – with possible misgivings held in reserve, ready to come out when necessary.
There are times when I am embarrassed by my nation’s involvement in foreign affairs. This is one.
All good sense here today.