Putin, the president maker manqué

Vlad dislikes the EU, which is good. Alas, he dislikes it only because he wrongly thinks it epitomises the West, which he hates. That’s not so good.

You see, Vlad isn’t just a career KGB officer but a visceral one. The KGB has been encoded into his DNA, which is why he shares all the foibles of that sinister organisation. He’s capable of perfidy, but not of subtlety. Cleverness, but not depth. Tactics, but not strategy.

His tendency is to rely on the more primitive tricks from the KGB bag: ‘whacking in the shithouse’ (to use his inaugural phrase), bribery, honey trap, blackmail.

At times he gets so carried away with such expedients that he loses sight of the desired goal, running the risk of the means not so much justifying the end as sabotaging it.

Vlad has taken Russia out of a short siding and put her back on the imperial track, which she has ridden for 500 years or so. Yet the mysterious Russian soul is such that the Russians seldom pursue imperial ambitions for material gain. Expansion is usually their aim in itself, and in pursuit of it they’re prepared to let their self-interest suffer.

Putin has found a way of exploiting this craving on the part of the populace, but at a cost. Moscow is full of posters and bumper stickers saying “To Berlin!”, “We can do it again!” and some such. Some of these also feature portraits of Stalin, who’s now almost as popular as he was in his lifetime.

The KGB junta is expertly whipping such grassroots sentiments into a hysteria, hoping this will make people forget that their standard of living is in the Chad and Gambia territory, while their human rights occupy an even lower plateau and their press is less free than in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Venezuela (Reporters Without Borders rating).

The downside is that an openly hostile stance towards the West may shake it out of its normal torpor. There are signs already that the West is losing, albeit slowly, some of its demob happiness. Military budgets are growing at a snail’s pace, if at all, but at least Russia is now generally identified as a hostile power.

Vlad could change all that, but his KGB viscera won’t let him. For example, if he saw the EU for what it is, a nail in the coffin of Western polity, he’d portray himself as its friend rather than implacable enemy.

Perhaps he could even ingratiate Russia into EU membership and then slowly take over by subverting that wicked organisation from within. As the only virile military power in Europe, Russia could then make the entire EU work for her, the way it now works for Germany.

Instead, KGB Vlad does what comes naturally: provocation, blackmail, disinformation, sabotage, cultivation of extremist parties – all bound to kill the dairy cow he could instead profitably milk.

Witness his current meddling in French elections. Le Pen’s National Front isn’t so much Putin’s client as his employee – it’s on Putin’s payroll. Hence he has thrown his KGB knowhow behind Marine, knowing that her victory would enable him to recoup his investment with a huge interest.

Not being an expert in clandestine tradecraft, I wouldn’t presume to offer Vlad any advice. But it’s reasonably clear that his own undoubted expertise has backfired by making Marine come across as the vicious demagogue she really is.

Every molecule in Vlad’s KGB body says that dripping some dirt on Macron into the public domain will give Marine a leg up. And then who knows, she might win and gratefully act as Vlad’s battering ram bringing the EU down.

To that end Russian heirs to the KGB First Chief Directorate expertly spread rumours that Macron evades taxes by hiding money in an offshore account. Realising that she was losing the presidential TV debate, Marine alluded to the rumours – only to get herself sued for her trouble.

I’ve followed numerous televised debates in various countries, but I’ve never seen one candidate suing another for libel. Macron would never have done that if he were unsure of the outcome: he knows that Le Pen’s KGB sponsors won’t be able to come up with any prima facie evidence.

So far Marine hasn’t referred to the other rumour also spread by the FSB, one referring to Macron’s ambivalent sexuality. Unlike the accusation of financial impropriety, this one has been around for a while and it’s probably less groundless.

Some of my French friends have inside knowledge of their country’s politics, and for them Macron’s bisexuality is hardly a secret. His close friendship with the male head of Radio France is also widely known.

Manny’s denials would sound more convincing if he stopped wearing two wedding rings and in general were less blatant about it. That he doesn’t go out of his way to conceal his predilection shows that he doesn’t regard any possible revelations as unduly damaging. Basically, no one in France gives a damn.

My friends, who despise Macron but detest Le Pen, fear that the Russians may at the last moment produce some photographs that could scupper Manny’s bid, but those photos would have to be truly disgusting to impress the blasé French.

I for one would love to see Vlad wearing a long mac and whispering “Hey, handsome, wanna see some feelthy pictures?”, which is roughly his natural level. But meanwhile he has reinforced his growing reputation as a geopolitical saboteur of legitimate politics.

Many Westerners are aghast, and their governments are beginning to take heed. What they’re going to do about it remains to be seen. But before long they’ll have to do something to neutralise the growing Russian threat. Vlad is bound to learn sooner or later that KGB tradecraft isn’t quite the same as statecraft.