Col. Putin is a tragically misunderstood figure, not least by me.
There I was, thinking that the good colonel is desperate to rebuild the Soviet Union, whose demise he once described as “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century”.
How wrong I was! A reader has kindly sent me an excerpt from an interview given to the Swedish paper Svenska Dagbladet by Putin’s former economic advisor Andrei Illarionov.
According to Mr (formerly Comrade) Illarionov, who should know, Putin couldn’t care less about the Soviet Union and the reconstruction thereof.
Granted, he does think that Khrushchev was criminally negligent when gerrymandering the Crimea out of Russia and into the Ukraine.
But Vlad has neither any quarrel with Nikita nor any desire to correct his mistakes. It’s Lenin’s dismemberment of the Russian Empire that gives Putin sleepless nights.
According to Illarionov, the good colonel sees himself not so much as another Stalin as a harder version of Nicholas II, a sort of Nicholas I Lite.
This ambition explains his constant references to Russia’s glorious imperial past, admittedly viewed in a different light by just about every other part of the Empire. Putin’s professed piety, even if it postdates his political elevation, also fits in nicely with such cravings.
More and more, the phrase ‘Third Rome’ crops up in the colonel’s speeches, and he no doubt fancies himself as the next emperor of Holy Russia. One must admit that Emperor Vladimir I has a better ring to it than KGB Colonel Putin.
As part of his ambition to bring the Empire back to life, Putin intends to reclaim the Ukraine, this goes without saying.
But there was more to that great commonwealth than just the Ukraine. The Russian Empire also included, among others, the three Baltic states, Georgia, Belarus – and Finland.
Since Col. Putin is nothing if not consistent, Illarionov claims that these countries are next on his list of conquests.
“None of the listed territories are NATO states,” comments The Guardian, “and some analysts suggest that this makes them ripe for Russia’s picking. As countries like the United States and the United Kingdom are only likely to become militarily involved if Russia is to attack a NATO nation, it appears unlikely as of now that any significant deterrents are blocking Putin from invading as he pleases.”
The comment raises an interesting question: is it Illarionov who is ignorant, or is it The Guardian? For the three Baltic states are definitely NATO members, and the charter of that organisation stipulates that an attack on one member constitutes an attack on all.
Yesterday Putin kindly informed the world that, if such were his wish, he could take Kiev in a fortnight. In response, NATO is deploying a formidable 5,000-strong force, spearheaded by Britain.
Not being an expert strategist, I wouldn’t venture a guess on how much this regiment (that’s what 5,000 soldiers add up to) would slow down the several armoured divisions Putin could deploy on short notice. Let’s just say the delay wouldn’t be unduly long.
Yet, if history is anything to go by, once such a conquest has been achieved the fun is merely beginning.
Soviet troops retook the Ukraine from the Germans in 1944, or rather liberated it, as the official term had it. Amazingly, not all Ukrainians welcomed the liberation.
In fact, many sought another liberation: from the liberators. To that end the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA) continued to fight guerrilla warfare against the Russians throughout the ‘50s – for more than a decade after the end of the war.
Most of the fighters, including their leader Roman Shukhevych, were eventually killed by the NKVD, but not before taking thousands of Russians with them, including one of the top Soviet generals Nikolai Vatutin.
All that drama was unfolding in conditions that were considerably less favourable to the Ukrainians than they are at present. One can confidently predict that, now that they’ve tasted independent statehood, the Ukrainians will exact a heavier toll on the Russians than they did in the ‘50s.
Can the Russians afford to pay it? Obviously Putin has his doubts, for otherwise he would have pushed the button for the magic fortnight already.
As to Putin’s desire to reincorporate Finland into the Russian Empire, it lacks novelty appeal. Stalin already attempted it in the winter of 1939-1940.
Then too his generals were promising a decisive victory within a week, two at the most. After all, they had a 100 to one superiority in tanks, not to mention every other conceivable rubric.
Stalin magnanimously let them take a month, after which all of Finland would again belong to Russia. Instead the war took four months and cost the Russians half a million dead (against 20,000 Finns).
They succeeded in grabbing merely 11 per cent of Finland’s territory, but lost something much more significant. Instead of having as its neighbour a neutral, if generally disgruntled, Finland, Stalin got an implacable enemy.
Finland declared war on the Soviet Union on 25 June, 1941, three days after the German attack. It was largely thanks to the Finnish troops that the Germans managed to close the loop of siege around Leningrad, which ended up costing the city 1.5 million lives.
Talk to the Finns today, and you’ll get the impression they don’t exactly suffer from historical amnesia. They will fight the Russians as desperately (and expertly) today as they did in 1939.
In those days most of the world took Finland’s side. Russia was summarily expelled from the League of Nations, becoming a pariah state allied with Nazi Germany. Who will be her allies if Putin issues marching orders tomorrow?
It probably doesn’t matter very much whether or not a target of Putin’s potential offensive belongs to NATO. Neither the Ukraine nor Finland belonged to any such alliance way back then, which didn’t prevent them from bloodying Russia severely.
Hence, even if NATO proves to be as craven and impotent as I suspect it will, Putin won’t enjoy a free ride.
It took the Russians 10 years to shed 15,000 soldiers’ lives and get out of Afghanistan, tail between their legs. The demise of the Soviet Union may have been hastened by that adventure – and, between you and me, the West didn’t even care about Afghanistan all that much.
The same won’t be the case with Finland or for that matter Poland, which was also part of the Russian Empire. Russia will find herself in total isolation, never a good place to be even in the absence of a military conflict.
All things considered, Putin would be well-advised to put his imperial ambitions on hold. Vladimir the First won’t last.