How the war will end

I don’t know, and neither does anyone else. Yet speculation about the possible end to the war in the Ukraine isn’t exactly groundless.

After all, we don’t have to consider numerous possibilities. There are only three conceivable scenarios, with a few subplots here and there. I suggest we look at them and decide how the result of the US elections may make each more or less likely.

Scenario 1 (Doomsday). The US in particular and NATO in general continue to drip-feed supplies to the Ukraine, with the drip getting slower and slower.

The Ukrainian army gradually runs out of ordnance, armaments and soldiers, with Russia gaining the upper hand in the war of attrition (in fact, this tendency is already observable). Eventually the Russians break through, and the Ukrainian front collapses.

The Russians win a resounding victory and turn the Ukraine into their colony. Guerrilla war will continue to flare up in places, but the Russians will respond with murderous, and eventually successful, punitive raids.

Likelihood. Low. Whoever wins on 5 November will find this scenario unacceptable. NATO would have to confront an emboldened and ever-aggressive fascist state on its doorstep, requiring a huge military build-up across Europe to contain it. Another Russian aggression, this time against a NATO state, would happen nonetheless, it would only be a matter of time.

Barring the unlikely possibility of the next US president being a Russian agent, this scenario is unlikely, although I wouldn’t put anything past our leaders.

Scenario 2 (Ideal). The US in particular and NATO in general drastically revise their approach to the Russian aggression.

They review Zelensky’s vaunted ‘plan for victory’, find it realistic and decide to do all they can to facilitate it. Removing all stops, they inundate the Ukraine with a flood of state-of-the-art armaments, including long-range missiles, Patriot systems with plenty of rockets for each, warplanes, cannon shells, tanks, armoured cars, drones and so on.

All restrictions on the use of such weapons are removed, the Ukrainians go on the offensive and drive the invaders back to the 1991 borders or at least to the 2014 ones. The Ukraine then joins NATO and becomes a formidable bastion of the West against any further Russian aggression.

Likelihood. Low to nonexistent. Trump, ventriloquist speaking through his dummy Vance, is clearly not even considering such a possibility.  What he has in mind is something close to my Scenario 3.

The Left-wing cabal using Biden and, should she win, Harris as a figurehead president, has had plenty of opportunity to act on this scenario and has neglected to do so. It’s hard to imagine they’ll suddenly grow the appendage responsible for making bold decisions — or the brain capable of thinking beyond the next election.

Scenario 3 (Realistic). A ceasefire is agreed, with the line of demarcation frozen at the current frontline.

According to the subsequent treaty, the Ukraine cedes the 20 per cent of her territory currently occupied by Russia and promises never to try to join NATO in the future. In return, Russia undertakes not to make any further encroachments on the Ukraine’s sovereignty.

The US underwrites the treaty and uses some mechanism to safeguard it. That could be some kind of demilitarised zone fortified and policed by NATO troops, or simply a security guarantee.

The Russians declare victory and announce another annual state holiday to commemorate it. At the same time they continue their aggressive buildup, knowing that no DMZ in history has ever done what it was supposed to do.

As for security guarantees, the Russians will have no reason to believe NATO in general and the US in particular will honour them. The US and Britain didn’t honour the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, guaranteeing the Ukraine’s security in exchange for her relinquishing nuclear weapons – so why break the habit?

The history of Russia over the past several centuries shows that the country regards any peace treaty as merely a temporary expedient enabling her to rebuild, rearm and have another go. It takes psychotic credulity to believe that this treaty would produce a different outcome.

Give it a couple of years or a couple of decades, but the Russians will come again to claim the rump Ukraine and whatever else they can get their hands on, the Baltics and Poland the likeliest targets.

Likelihood. High. Trump has exactly this scenario in mind, and he’ll have enough clout with Russia and, more important, China to bring it to fruition. Trump, the self-proclaimed champion deal-maker, will threaten Russia with a version of Scenario 2 and China with crippling trade sanctions to get his way

Should he win on 5 November, Trump will thus push his plan through and blow his own trumpet at an eardrum-busting volume, declaring himself the kind of peacemaker Jesus had in mind in his Beatitudes. Moreover, he’ll be able to make sure that the toxic fallout from such surrender by another name happens after his stint at the White House.

Should Harris win, her wirepullers may still decide that Scenario 3 is the only way to avoid Scenario 1. They’ll then act according to Trump’s plan, with minor modifications, taking all the credit for the subsequent peace.

Scenario 3 is indeed the most realistic one, but the Ukraine’s refusal to play along will turn it into a chimera. The Ukrainians may choose to fight to the last bullet and the last man, and they have form in that sort of thing.

Ukrainian nationalists continued to fight the Soviets for several years after 1945, against desperate odds. They chose death over slavery, and whatever the realist in us may think about such self-sacrifice, the moral agent in us must applaud its nobility.

Unfortunately, either potential winner on 5 November, but especially Trump, will try to twist the Ukraine’s arm into compliance with Scenario 3. Making the threat to cut off the supplies altogether wouldn’t be beyond them.

Let’s hold our breath, wait and see what happens. Those of us who believe in miracles, should pray for one in this case. You never know your luck.

P.S. The amazing coup of exploding pagers raises more questions than I have the space or energy to ask. But the question foremost in my mind is what on earth that Iranian ambassador was doing with a Hezbollah pager.