I’m going to commit an act of double plagiarism by quoting Enoch Powell misquoting Virgil: “As I look ahead, I am filled with foreboding; like the Roman, I seem to see the River Tiber foaming with much blood”.
Replace the River Tiber with the River Seine, and the warning seems apposite. For France is in real danger of severe social unrest, perhaps even a civil war.
Before you shrug your shoulders, suggesting that what happens to assorted amphibians has nothing to do with you, I beg you to take another look across the Channel.
This doesn’t necessarily mean you are wrong: it’s quite possible that the trouble bubbling just underneath the surface in France won’t burst out violently. It’s also possible that the problem is strictly confined to the space between France’s borders.
However, it would be foolhardy not to consider another, very real possibility that Europe is on the brink of trouble not just with a capital T, but indeed with the T as an extra-bold drop initial. And if we reverse the entire history of mankind and try, for a change, to heed lessons of history, we’ll see the links in a chain of begets clasping together.
Trouble in one major European country can beget trouble all over the Continent, which in turn can affect Britain and then the rest of the world. The current situation bears an eerie resemblance to the 1930s, when fascists and communists clashed in the streets of Berlin, Paris – and London.
Eventually, the radical left-wing parties in France formed an alliance called the Popular Front (Front populaire). That happened after a massive campaign of propaganda and subversion run throughout the 20s and 30s by the Soviets and organised by the German communist Willi Münzenberg.
Münzenberg, described by Walter Laqueur as a “cultural impresario of genius”, flooded Europe and the US with a stream of brainwashing unleashed by numerous newspapers, journals, radio stations and cinema studios he put together with Stalin’s funds. NKVD chiefs had a point when they referred to Front populaire as “our operation Popular Front”.
Münzenberg also organised worldwide protest movements, anti-fascist and anti-capitalist rallies, and anything else that could wreak havoc on social tranquillity. That paved the way for the rise of extreme-left parties in Spain, which led to the Civil War, and the rise of Nazism in Germany, which led to you know what. The two political extremes succeeded in undermining the existing order in key European countries, making a mockery of ‘collective security’, a 1930s term that was proved to be a grotesque misnomer.
I don’t mean to sound alarmist, but when France goes to the polls this Sunday, it’s likely that Le Pen’s crypto-fascist National Rally (RN) will come in first, closely followed by a hard-left alliance nostalgically called Front populaire.
Macron’s supposedly centrist coalition was trounced by the other two in the European Parliament elections, and pollsters confidently predict the same result nationally. Yet it’s not just Macron’s party that may be demolished, but the entire political order in Europe – and beyond.
It’s tempting to blame the problem on the European Union, and this isn’t a groundless temptation. But the malaise runs deeper than the EU, which isn’t so much the disease as its symptom.
The real infection was spread by the post-war attempt to shove a neo-liberal (in fact, non-liberal) ideology down the collective throat of Europe, which was bound to create a violent reflux sooner or later. A clash has been brewing for decades between the actual reality of people’s lives and the virtual reality of the ideology promoted and enforced by the ruling bureaucracy.
This has nothing to do with the idea of a united Europe in se. Europe was united in the Middle Ages, and there’s no reason it can’t be united again – provided it’s bound together by a proper adhesive. In the Middle ages it was Christianity that acted in that role, and what is its substitute today? Commitment to the free movement of people?
The modern ideology was rotten to begin with, and rot is a process that never ends by itself. Huge holes are appearing in the ideological fabric woven by modernity, and these can only be darned by different hues of political extremism.
People turn to extremes when the centre can no longer hold. In fact, their turning to extremes points to systemic problems with the centre, with the mainstream. The mainstream – however defined – has traditionally been cast as the guardian of political and social stability. When the centre collapses, stability may well follow suit.
Even the US isn’t immune from this problem. That was demonstrated on 6 January, 2021, when a mob of Trump supporters stormed the Capitol Building two months after their ideological leader lost the presidential election.
The polarisation between the anode of the right with the cathode of the left is sharper there than I’ve ever seen, and there’s talk of a possible civil war regardless of who wins this time around. Britain is slightly more moderate, and the feeling at the grassroots is that the two main parties aren’t so different as to turn their supporters violent.
I don’t think many Britons have so far cottoned on that a hard-left government is about to take over on 4 July, and when they do realise that, it’ll be too late to do anything about it for a generation at least. But France is a different story altogether, and so is most of the Continent. Neither Le Pen’s people nor the reconstituted Front poulaire will take defeat lying down.
The political system of the Fifth Republic, with its proportional representation and hence inordinate power vested in the executive branch, isn’t conducive to stability under the best of circumstances. This may explain why the French political bureaucracy is so predominantly pro-EU. Aware of the structural defects of its own system, it seeks strength in a giant supranational Leviathan supposedly capable of swallowing local problems and regurgitating them into Collective Security Mark II.
All of this has more to do with make-believe than with any detectable reality. The reality is that the French are sick of woke diktats, whoever issues them, their own government or the EU. Now they seem to be desperate enough to turn to the radical remedies prescribed by the extreme right and the extreme left. When this happens, it’s moderation that may well fall victim.
The two political extremes in France may have more in common than they, and the people in general, realise. But this commonalty lies deep, whereas the differences are on the surface, and they are likely to produce violent clashes.
If, as expected, RN comes first and Front populaire second, much will depend on whether or not Le Pen gains an absolute majority. If so, Macron, who isn’t going to relinquish the presidency come what may, will have to ask RN to form the next government.
The lefties will then resort to riots, mobilising the resentful masses in France’s ghetto-like banlieues. Some French commentators are warning that these may well go beyond the usual burning of cars and looting of boutiques. The possibility of an all-out civil war is mooted in all seriousness.
Moreover, France’s inordinately huge civil service, some 2.5 million-strong, is threatening to disobey any orders emanating from an RN government and its likely, barely post-pubescent, head Jordan Barella. That’s likely to paralyse any orderly life in the country, making the more macabre prophecies come true.
An economic crisis is likely to ensue: the markets tend to abhor any political extremism even if it’s not all that extreme (Liz Truss’s short-lived tenure in Britain comes to mind). And when the French suffer economically, they tend to take to the streets, torches and cobblestones in hand.
The more likely hung parliament may be even worse. Macron’s presidency will look more like a cooked goose than a lame duck. The National Assembly dominated by the two extremes will be too embroiled in its own squabbles to provide overall stability. The markets will react, the people will rebel… well, I don’t want to repeat myself.
France is only the most immediate illustration of the drift towards the extremes observable throughout the West, but especially in continental Europe. The on-going European war, bigger than any post-1945 conflict, makes matters even worse. Putin’s propagandists aren’t a patch on Willi Münzenberg, but they are doing their worst to plunge Europe, or any parts thereof, into chaos.
All things considered, the temptation to talk about various rivers foaming with blood is strong. This is one kind of prophecy that one hopes won’t come true but fears it may.
It could be that strife in France teaches the rest of the world a lesson. However, I suspect it will be viewed through the lens of “They’re so different from us.”
Any thoughts on what the growing Muslim population would do if the two political parties take their fight to the streets?
They’ll come out for the Left in force — as they do everywhere. How do you think Sadiq Khan gets elected as London’s mayor? In France especially, RN’s whole platofrm is built on opposition to immigration, especially of the Muslim variety. The Left, on the other hand, pursue the more, the merrier strategy.