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No one I know ever took seriously Trump’s promise to end the war in the Ukraine within his first 24 hours in office. But we’ve all been waiting with bated breath to find out what the President had in mind.
Now we know. Or rather don’t know because Trump’s message to Putin doesn’t clarify matters one bit. The only conclusion one can draw is that Trump doesn’t really understand the situation, nor, more puzzling, has any advisers who do.
He starts out by declaring love for the Russian people, which is neither here nor there. But the way he explained the origin of that affection has everyone in the Kremlin up in arms. Even I cringed, and I’m no friend of Putin.
In both style and substance, Trump seems to have been inspired by the speech that Marlon Brando’s Godfather made to the other Mafia dons. Seemingly pacifying, it augmented that carrot with the stick of threats. But, unlike Trump, old Vito was in command of his facts.
“We must never forget,” writes Trump, “that Russia helped us win the Second World War, losing almost 60,000,000 lives in the process.”
First, a minor quibble: the 60,000,000 number was bandied about and discredited long ago. Having done the sums as accurately as the available data allow, serious historians and demographers have arrived at a total of about 27 million, of whom over 15 million were military casualties.
Trump doesn’t seem to have a Russian expert in his entourage, which his playing fast and loose with numbers shows. More important, such an expert could have prevented him from needlessly alienating the Russians by cavalierly offending the core of what passes for their ideology.
That is based on the cult of victory in the Great Patriotic War, their misnomer for the Second World War. The cult is worshiped with so much fervour that most Russians are unaware that their country had some help from the US and other allies.
(I recall doing interpreting for a group of Russian athletes visiting Houston back in the 1970s. On a city tour, I pointed out a memorial to Americans killed in the Second World War, much to my charges’ consternation. They didn’t realise the US had taken part in the hostilities. That was a long time ago but, if anything, the situation now has to be even worse.)
Official sources begrudgingly acknowledge that assistance but downplay its vital importance. Such is ideology, with its characteristic dismissal of facts that don’t fit.
But Trump’s statement is just as ideological and just as ignorant. He seems to be saying that the US won the war almost singlehandedly, with a little help from the Soviet Union, which is historically inaccurate and – more to the point – diplomatically inept. If the President envisages playing a part in subsequent negotiations, enraging one party by way of a warm-up is silly.
Since he chooses to adopt the tone of a chap who’ll make you an offer you can’t refuse, he should realise that such a mentality is encoded into Putin’s DNA. Like a Mafia don, he too demands respect – and neither can he be seen by his lieutenants as someone yielding to pressure. Show weakness and you are dead – this is one of Putin’s favourite phrases.
“I’m going to do Russia, whose Economy is failing, and President Putin, a very big FAVOR,” continues Trump. “Settle now and STOP this ridiculous War!”
Trump’s team seems to have a vacancy not only for a Russian expert but also for a grammarian. No one can ever accuse the President of being undercapitalised: his devotion to capital letters is as boundless as it is illiterate.
The Russian addressees of his message may not realise that part, but they’ll certainly be up in Arms at the Claim that their Economy is FAILING. It’s hard to know anything for sure about that country, but the reports I get from Russia don’t suggest an impending catastrophe.
The economy is definitely hurting, with rampant inflation impoverishing more and more people. At least a third of the budget (in reality, probably quite a bit more) is going up in smoke in the battlefields of the Eastern Ukraine, and Western sanctions do pinch.
But the Russian people have a long history of adding new holes to their belts, while the Russian government is similarly adept at getting around sanctions and international laws. These days too they are punching numerous holes in the sanctions wall, with a little help from their friends in China, Hungary, the Middle East – and corrupt Western traders whose name is legion.
Then comes a threat that sounds empty to me and definitely infuriating to Putin. “If we don’t make a ‘deal’, and soon, I have no choice but to put high levels of Taxes, Tariffs, and Sanctions on anything being sold by Russia to the United States and various other participating countries.
“Let’s get this war, which never would have started if I were President, over with! We can do this the easy way or the hard way…,” added Trump in a further foray into Vito Corleone’s idiom.
Karl Popper would describe the first part of that statement as an unfalsifiable, and hence unsound, claim. Not being a Popper fan, I’d simply describe it as irrelevant and self-serving. But what does Trump see as the hard way? What is his leverage on Putin?
Slapping further sanctions on Russian exports to the West isn’t going to work because the volume of that trade is already negligible. Yes, saving the Russians further hardships may be (but really isn’t) important to Putin, but not nearly as important as saving his own face. If he loses that, the rest of his body will follow in short order – he knows that as well as your average godfather.
In his other messages Trump outlined other levers of influence, which may prove to be more effective. He is hinting that, should Putin refuse to do a ‘deal’, the US would ratchet up its arms supplies to the Ukraine. And if it’s Zelensky who proves obdurate, Trump will stop all such supplies.
If both parties take such threats on faith, Trump may succeed in dragging them to the negotiating table. Both countries are suffering egregiously, and both would be happy to end the war. But on what terms?
Zelensky has stated he is ready to talk, but he won’t accept the 20 per cent of Ukrainian territory currently occupied by the Russians as part of the conversation. Putin has also hinted at a possibility of talks but, with the Russians on the offensive, he too signalled his aversion to any serious concessions.
So what kind of deal does Trump have in mind? I hope an equitable one that isn’t tantamount to the Ukraine’s surrender. Yet I fear that, as far as Trump is concerned, any deal is better than no deal, and neither party to the conflict sees it that way.
One way or another he needs some expert advice on how to talk to a man who describes his youth as that of “a common Petersburg thug”. By all means, speak from a position of strength, but don’t make overt threats that will be counterproductive.
Thugs respond to deeds, not threats. Thus promising to arm the Ukraine to the teeth is not going to work, but actually doing so may. Announcing that US troops will be part of any peacekeeping contingent after the war may also have an effect.
Above all, Trump should realise that the desired end of any deal is lasting peace and the Ukraine’s security. Any other deal would set the stage for another world war, and this time around the US won’t have Russia’s help.